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Tianqi Futures: International Commodities led the decline. Tianjiao's high fell

pressured by the intensification of economic recession concerns, international crude oil futures fell to a five week low on the 17th, down more than 10% in 10 trading days. The February contract in New York once fell below $90/barrel. Last week, the US crude oil inventory increased for the first time in nine weeks and the US dollar strengthened, making the future market trend full of uncertainty; The US economy has been overshadowed by recession, and the international capital market has suffered a "Waterloo". Recently, the stock market, foreign exchange market and futures market have fallen

Tianjiao market also suffered a sharp decline this week. The weekly opening price of TOCOM rubber futures benchmark RSS3 contract in June was 302.2 yen, the highest price was 306.5 yen, and the lowest price was 287 yen. The futures price fell nearly 20 yen from the high, with a decline of more than 6%; The decline of Shanghai Jiao this week was also huge. The futures price fell all the way from the high point of 25050 to 23500, and it was impossible to fall back to 1550. The market almost retrenched its gains in the previous three weeks. In the absence of its own information, the market was directly suppressed by the weakness of surrounding commodities

the cost pressure caused by lightweight is greater. The spot rubber price in Asia remained strong this week, and the transaction was relatively stable, boosted by the rise in the rubber futures market and the scarce supply of raw materials. Traders are still optimistic about the market prospect, because Chinese spot enterprises are expected to conduct centralized procurement and stock up before the Spring Festival, and the rainfall has inhibited the rubber production in southern Thailand and northern Malaysia. The spot market has not fallen significantly due to the sharp decline of futures, and is expected to maintain the raw rubber price at a high point in the short term at least

Ju Hongzhen, President of China Rubber Industry Association, recently said that China's tire production will increase by 12-15% in 2008, and drive the import of composite rubber and synthetic rubber. President Ju Hongzhen said that the output growth may be slower than the estimated growth rate of 16-18% in 2007, because the government lowered export tax rebates and tightened monetary policy. China's import of natural rubber requires a tariff of 20% or a fee of 2600 yuan per ton. Thanks to the large demand for tires, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2% to 1.65 million tons in 2008; The import of synthetic rubber increased by 9% to 1.41 million tons

the inventory data released last week showed that the rubber inventory increased by 3000 tons to 96760 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 2430 tons to 65825 tons

the strong fundamentals will provide strong support for the future market of natural rubber. In the short-term natural rubber market, when its own factors are not obvious, the market is directly affected by surrounding commodities; You Yufei, director of plastic additives of BIC additives (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., said in an interview that under the influence of the intensifying U.S. economic crisis, international crude oil, gold and other bulk commodities have fallen sharply, and the short-term market will still be restricted by this factor; Japanese glue was sold at the line of 300 yen, and the 290 yen level was also declared to be lost, while the fund held long positions to wait and see, making the future trend uncertain. Is the market turning into a bear market, or after adjustment, stabilize again and hit the previous high? In order to avoid the change of pendulum torque and strike center position, Shanghai rubber was blocked twice at the level of 000 integer at 25, which also laid hidden dangers for the sharp decline in the future. The market fell by 1000 points under the drag of surrounding markets. After the rising channel was destroyed at the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008, more stop loss selling was triggered. However, in the Southeast Asian production areas, the winter rubber tapping off-season has entered one after another, and the domestic pre holiday stock preparation will alleviate the pressure brought by inventory, and crude oil The medium and long-term rising pattern of the gold market has not changed significantly, and it is still expected to innovate after short-term adjustment. Supported by high factors, the Tianjiao market does not have the conditions for a sharp decline, and the future market is still expected to hit the previous high point with the strong support of strong fundamentals. However, the current technical graphics are beginning to weaken. Next week, the market will focus on the support of 23500 and 23000 gold support below

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