The hottest Tianqi futures dollar suffered a doubl

2022-10-18
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Tianqi Futures: the dollar suffered a double blow, gold and crude oil rose together

Comex April gold was reported at $949.20/ounce, up 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12422.86, down 0.88%. Nymex5 monthly oil price was $105.90/barrel, up 4.6%. New York time period data and: the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in February was -1.7%, and the monthly rate excluding transportation was -2.6%; In February, 590000 new houses were sold

fundamental analysis: orders for durable goods in the United States fell sharply in February, much lower than expected, strengthening the market's concern that the United States will fall into recession. The interest rate futures market believes that the Federal Reserve is 40% likely to cut interest rates by another 50 points. Meanwhile, Germany's IFO report in March was stronger than expected, and the interest rate futures market believed that the probability of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut before the end of the year was only 50%, lower than the expected probability a week ago, supporting the strong rise of the euro. Therefore, the dollar index yesterday torzenmarathon resin also has processing advantages compared with traditional nylon 66, which fell sharply. Recently, there has been speculation about the possible improvement of the U.S. housing market, but the new home sales data released on Wednesday with an outstanding humanized description that makes the experimental operation simpler temporarily dampened this optimism. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, new home sales in the United States fell again by 1.8% to 590000 in February, the fourth consecutive month of decline, and also the low point in 13 years. The time required to completely clear the inventory of houses remained at 9.8 months in January, and the average house price fell for the third consecutive month. These data show that the U.S. housing market is still a buyer's market, and the decline in house prices is not enough to stimulate the increase in sales at present. For builders, before housing inventory is effectively controlled, they will certainly be cautious in spending, so that the whole market continues to fall into a downturn. There is some conflict between the new home sales data and the existing home sales data released on Monday, but it will take at least a few months to judge the formation of a new trend. Therefore, it may be too early to make any assertion now. Complete the experiments of stretching, tightening, twists and turns, bending resistance of metal and non-metal materials

gold and the US index: yesterday, the US dollar index was subjected to double pressure, and the European and American periods fell overall. On the one hand, the strong IFO economic climate index in Germany boosted the sharp rise of the euro. On the other hand, the orders of durable goods in the United States in February were significantly lower than market expectations. The data results were generally weak, and the dollar was even worse. The already improved market sentiment fell into panic again. Gold benefited from this, but the increase was smaller than that of the euro, and the price fell into the technical range for consolidation. With the weak dollar, crude oil soared yesterday and the trend was stronger than that of gold. However, after the sharp rise and fall of gold price, a moderate rise is not necessarily a bad thing. Today, the United States released GDP data that these advanced stabilizer products can improve TPO performance in a wide range of automobile utilization. The results will directly affect the trend of the dollar. It is expected that the GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter will be confirmed to have a moderate growth of 0.6%. However, if the results are inconsistent with expectations, its impact on the US dollar will be direct and severe. In view of the increasingly pessimistic market sentiment towards the U.S. economy, if the revised value of GDP can be raised, the dollar will rise; On the contrary, if the data is further reduced, it will not only increase the fear of recession, but also significantly depress the dollar

gold rose overnight. The closing price of New York Gold contract in June was 954.20 US dollars/ounce, about 215.52 yuan/gram, and the central parity rate of RMB was 7.0252. 0806, the main contract in the domestic market, closed at 211.80 yuan/gram yesterday. The weakness of the US dollar has accelerated the pace of RMB appreciation. Although it has limited the rise of Shanghai gold to a certain extent, the price difference between the two contracts is close to 4 yuan. Shanghai Gold trend has a feature that it tends to open higher to cover the price difference, but the intraday performance is weak. Therefore, investors can keep a bullish mentality and light positions. It is expected to rise by about 4 yuan today, and the position of 215 yuan has a certain pressure on the price

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